Poll of Polls Shows Coalition on Track for 63-Seat Majority

The current National-ACT-NZ First coalition government is strongly positioned to win a second term, according to the latest NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls.

The research shows the coalition has an 88.3% probability of forming the next government, with combined support of 50.2% compared to the opposition's 44.9%. This 5.3 percentage point lead has grown from just 3.3 points in March last year.

The modelling suggests the coalition would win 63 seats - a three-seat majority - with National taking 37 seats, NZ First 16 seats, and ACT 10 seats. Labour would secure 43 seats, the Greens 11, and Te Pāti Māori 3.

While National's support has dropped since the 2023 election, NZ First's surge to regularly polling above 10% has more than compensated for this decline. Labour has steadily gained ground but the Greens have slowly lost support, falling below their 2023 election result. Te Pāti Māori has dropped sharply after an earlier rise.

Motu Research senior fellow Stuart Donovan, who built the model, explained that voter movement tends to happen between similar parties, which keeps the overall government vs opposition balance more stable than individual party numbers suggest.

"Because support is shifting mainly within each political bloc rather than between them, Labour's gains have not been enough to give the opposition an overall lead," the research found.

The Poll of Polls combines public polls and surveys using data back to 2014, running thousands of simulations to forecast results. Researchers note the situation can still change, as happened during 2023, with regular updates planned as new data emerges.