Politics
National-Led Government Extends Lead In Latest Poll
Summary Points:
- National-led Government's support rises to 55%, widening the gap over Labour-Greens-Maori Party.
- National's support increases to 37.5%, its highest level in six months since March 2024.
- Labour drops to 23%, while Greens and Maori Party show slight increases in support.
The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for September 2024 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT, and NZ First) strengthening its lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition. The governing coalition's support increased by 2 percentage points, reaching 55%. This gain has widened the gap over the combined support of the Labour, Greens, and Maori parties, which declined by 2 percentage points to 41%.
For the National-led Government, National's support grew by 1.5 percentage points to 37.5%, its highest level since March 2024. ACT's support rose slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 10%, while NZ First remained unchanged at 7.5%.
On the opposition side, Labour's support fell significantly by 3.5 percentage points to 23%. In contrast, the Greens saw a modest increase of 1 percentage point, rising to 14%, and the Maori Party's support edged up by 0.5 percentage points to 4%.
Minor parties outside Parliament maintained a steady 4% support, with The Opportunities Party at 2.5% and a collective 1.5% for other smaller parties such as the New Conservatives, NewZeal, the Freedom Party, the Outdoors Party, and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
The projected seat count based on these results suggests that the National-led coalition would secure 69 seats, up one seat from the election results. This breaks down to 47 seats for National (down two seats), 13 for ACT (up two seats), and nine for NZ First (up one seat). The opposition bloc, on the other hand, would only secure 51 seats—a drop of four. Labour would hold 29 seats (down five), the Greens 17 (up two), and the Maori Party five (down one).
Roy Morgan's Government Confidence Rating also dropped 5 points to 92.5 in September. A larger proportion of electors, 46.5% (up 1 percentage point), believe New Zealand is "heading in the wrong direction," while only 39% (down 4 percentage points) think the country is "heading in the right direction."
In terms of gender preferences, men heavily favour the National-led coalition, with 64% supporting the government compared to only 31.5% backing the opposition. Women, however, show more support for the opposition, at 50%, compared to 46% favouring the government.
Older men (50+) are particularly strong backers of National and NZ First, while younger women under 50 show significant support for the Greens, with 23.5% choosing the party. Read the full poll results here.