• National-led coalition increases voter support, securing 53%, while opposition drops to 43%.
  • Economic optimism grows with easing inflation and interest rate cuts supporting government confidence.
  • Gender and age divide continues, with men backing the government and younger women supporting opposition.

The latest Roy Morgan poll for August 2024 shows a significant boost in support for New Zealand’s National-led coalition government. The coalition, comprising the National, ACT, and New Zealand First parties, increased its lead over the Labour-Greens-Māori Party opposition, securing 53% of the vote, a 3% rise from the previous month. In contrast, the opposition bloc fell by 1%, now holding 43% of voter support.

The National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, saw the largest gain, rising 3.5% to 36%, marking its highest support since February 2024. ACT, however, dropped by 1.5%, now at 9.5%, while New Zealand First saw a modest increase, reaching 7.5%. Meanwhile, Labour experienced a slight rebound, climbing 2.5% to 26.5%, while the Green Party’s support fell to 13%, and the Māori Party dropped to 3.5%, down 2.5%.

If an election were held today, the National-led coalition would retain power with a comfortable majority, winning 66 seats, compared to 54 for the Labour-Greens-Māori opposition. National would claim 45 seats, ACT 12, and New Zealand First 9. Labour would secure 33 seats, with the Greens taking 16 and the Māori Party 5.

The poll reflects rising economic optimism following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25%, its first reduction in four years. Inflation has also been easing, contributing to a more positive outlook. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rose by 7.5 points to 97.5, indicating a growing belief among voters that the country is on the right track.

Despite this overall boost, a sharp gender divide persists in New Zealand politics. The poll reveals that men overwhelmingly favor the National-led coalition, with 63.5% of male voters supporting the government. In contrast, 53.5% of women back the opposition parties. Older men, particularly those aged 50 and above, are the strongest supporters of the government, with 66% favoring National, ACT, or New Zealand First. Meanwhile, younger women aged 18-49 strongly back Labour, the Greens, and the Māori Party, with 57.5% support in that demographic.

The continued division by age and gender signals that while the government is making gains, challenges remain in winning over younger and female voters. The economic improvements, however, provide a tailwind for Prime Minister Luxon as his government looks to solidify its position in the coming months​

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