Three months out from the election, the government is clinging to a two-seat majority — and a new party just made things considerably more complicated.
The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll has the Opportunity Party breaking five percent in a mainstream public poll for the first time, landing on 6.1 percent, up 2.8 points. That translates to eight projected seats. The catch: those votes are coming largely at Labour's expense, not the government's.
Labour drops 3.7 points to 27.8 percent — its weakest result since December 2024. National nudges up 0.5 points to 31.0 percent. New Zealand First falls 1.7 points to 9.1 percent, ACT holds steady at 7.3 percent, and the Greens slip slightly to 10.1 percent.
Te Pāti Māori is in freefall. Down 1.9 points to 1.5 percent, the party is now polling neck-and-neck with the Women's Rights Party.
In projected seats, the government bloc holds 61 to the opposition's 59 — with Opportunity counted among the opposition. A margin of two. With a seventh party now in the mix, confidence and supply arithmetic just got a lot messier for everyone.
Christopher Luxon reclaims the preferred prime minister lead, up 4.1 points to 23.2 percent. Chris Hipkins trails at 19.8 percent. Winston Peters sits at 10.5 percent, Chlöe Swarbrick at 4.8 percent, and David Seymour at 3.8 percent.
Ninety days to go. Nobody is comfortable.