1News Verian Poll: National Gains Ground as Labour's Party Vote Dips to 29%

Labour’s party vote has dipped below the 30% mark according to the latest 1News Verian poll, marking a 4% decline over the past month. This represents their lowest performance since Chris Hipkins assumed leadership of the party.
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Conducted from August 12 to 16, the poll places Labour at a mere 29%. This starkly contrasts with their commanding 50% party vote in the previous election.

The poll also reveals a setback for Chris Hipkins in the preferred prime minister rankings since he took up his role. In contrast, National has seen an uptick to 37% in today’s poll, a 2% increase since July. ACT has secured a 1% gain, reaching 13%, and the Greens have experienced a 2% rise, reaching 12%.

Remarkably, New Zealand First has witnessed a surge with a 4% share, putting them within touching distance of the pivotal 5% party vote threshold required to regain a foothold in Parliament. To translate this into seats in the House, the party would need to secure an electorate seat based on the current numbers.

In terms of parliamentary representation, the poll’s outcomes suggest that National and ACT combined could form a government with ease. Their total of 65 seats, comprising National’s 48 and ACT’s 17, is comfortably above the majority threshold of 61 seats. Conversely, Labour would find itself with 37 seats. When aligned with the Greens’ 15 seats and Te Pāti Māori’s three seats (assuming Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki), the left-wing bloc’s aggregate comes to just 55 seats.

This underscores the significance of reaching the magic number of 61 seats for a decisive majority.

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